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At the fourth meeting of the NAC Analytica Economists' Club, a survey was conducted among key experts to gather their forecasts and expectations for Kazakhstan’s economic outlook in 2024. The survey participants included representatives from the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KISI), the Economic Research Institute, the Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC), as well as the “Talap” center for applied research. A majority of 63% of respondents expect GDP growth in the range of4.1% to 4.5%, while the remaining 37% lean towards a more conservative estimate of 3% to 4%. Inflation…
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Astana, Kazakhstan – September 24, 2024 Kazakhstan's key economic policy challenges took center stage during the fourth meeting of the NAC Analytica Economists' Club. The event brought together top-tier experts from the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KISI), the Economic Research Institute, the Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC), as well as the “Talap” center for applied research to exchange insights. The meeting kicked off with a detailed overview of the economic landscape in 2024. Experts pinpointed both the strengths and weaknesses shaping the country's economy, highlighting emerging trends that could steer the…
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A senior researcher of the Economic Modeling Development Center, Zhandos Ybrayev (PhD), presented his research work titled "Real exchange rate management and economic growth: export performance in Kazakhstan, 2009-2019” at the 2020 Eastern Economic Association Meetings in Boston, USA. The conference gathers together researchers from various fields of economics to present their recent advances in the field and exchange ideas on hard-pressed issues in contemporary research. The research work presented at the conference concentrates on evaluating the effect of stable and competitive real exchange rate management on economic growth by analyzing the export performance of tradable goods sector in Kazakhstan over…
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Senior researchers of the Center participated in the Summer School of the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (BGSE) during July 1-13. The researchers of the Center attended courses on Advanced Bayesian Methods, Bayesian Methods for DSGE, Modelling Non-stationary and Non-linear Time Series and Macroeconomic Time Series. The summer school program was specifically designed for experts/researchers and PhD students actively engaged in research in the related fields. The courses briefly covered theoretical aspects of macroeconomics and taught applications of both standard and modern techniques of macroeconometrics on country level data. The research activity of the Center has been focused on building…
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KYRGYZSTAN 2018 - 2021 GDP Growth (%) Potential Output Growth (%) Inflation (%) Unemployment (%) 2018 4.2 7.3 1.9 7.5 2019 4.9 7.2 1.1 6.6 2020 3.9 6.9 0.9 5.8 2021 4.1 6.4 0.9 5.4 Table 1: Forecasts for Kyrgyzstan for 2018-2021 Figure 1: GDP Growth Accounting According to the model’s forecast based on stochastic simulations, Kyrgyzstan’s GDP growth rate averaged at 4.2% in 2018. Gross fixed capital formation recovers from -0.8% in 2017 to 3.1% in 2018, sustained by rising domestic demand and decreasing user cost of capital. Household consumption continues to support economic growth as the result…
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KAZAKHSTAN 2018 - 2021 GDP Growth (%) Potential Output Growth (%) Inflation (%) Unemployment (%) 2018 4.1 3.8 6.1 4.8 2019 4.2 4.1 5.1 4.8 2020 2.8 4.1 3.2 4.7 2021 5.3 4.4 3.8 4.7 Table 1: Forecasts for Kazakhstan for 2018-2021 Figure 1: GDP Growth Accounting According to preliminary forecasts, GDP growth rate will be 4.1% by the end of 2018. Major drivers of such dynamics are household consumption and oil exports. Household consumption in 2018 increases due to an increase in real disposable income of the population. The main factor in the growth of oil exports is…
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Luca Sala, Professor of Economics at Bocconi University, presented a series of lectures on factor models in March at the Economic Modeling Development Center, NAC Analytica. Factor models are widely used in finance, macroeconomics and big data to explain the behavior of a large number of random variables in terms of a smaller number of common factors. More specifically, factor models can be applied to extract business cycles, real interest rates, potential output and other latent variables important for forecasting and modeling the economy of a country. Lectures also covered Principal Component Analysis, its comparison with factor models and the conditions…
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The Economic Modeling Development Center cordially invites experts in the field of economics to the seminar “Macroeconomics and financial markets: models and issues for Kazakhstan” on December 4, 2018. The purpose of this seminar is to exchange research ideas and experience in the field of macroeconomics and finance for a more in-depth analysis of the economy of Kazakhstan. The seminar will be attended by faculty staff of Nazarbayev University, researchers of Institute for Advanced Studies (Vienna), experts of the center, as well as representatives of government agencies and the private sector. The seminar starts at 9.00, room 1010, block C3,…
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The research paper “A Macroeconometric Model for Kazakhstan” of the Economic Modelling Development Center was presented to the faculty staff of Nazarbayev University. The presentation was attended by professors of the School of Social Sciences and Humanities, the Graduate School of Business and the Graduate School of Public Policy. Senior researchers of the Center presented main models built for forecasting the economy of Kazakhstan, and shared the results of the research. The faculty was interested in the results of the work and shared their view on the improvement of the model and further plans for research in the field of…
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The results of the research work “A Macroeconometric Model for Kazakhstan” of the Economic Modeling Development Center were presented at the “Research Day” event at Nazarbayev University. More than 30 research works conducted by the faculty staff, students and researchers of the university were presented at the event. Many scientific works were in the field of chemistry, engineering, biology and sociology. The research paper of the Center on macroeconometric model for Kazakhstan turned out to be the only work in the field of economics at the “Research Day” event. The Center also continues to work on improving the model and…
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The visit was in the form of a series of seminars on macroeconomic modeling by researchers of NAC Analytica and IHS. Both institutes joined efforts to build macroeconometric models for Kazakhstan. To a larger extent, the researchers worked on generating model simulations and forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables such as real GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment rate. Finally, preliminary results of the model simulations and forecasts were obtained based on the structural macroeconomic model for Kazakhstan.
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