At the fourth meeting of the NAC Analytica Economists' Club, a survey was conducted among key experts to gather their forecasts and expectations for Kazakhstan’s economic outlook in 2024. The survey participants included representatives from the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KISI), the Economic Research Institute, the Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC), as well as the “Talap” center for applied research.
A majority of 63% of respondents expect GDP growth in the range of4.1% to 4.5%, while the remaining 37% lean towards a more conservative estimate of 3% to 4%.
Inflation projections spanned a broader spectrum. While 38% of respondents anticipate inflation to be in the 8.1% to 9% range, 25% expect it to be between 7% and 8%. A quarter of experts forecast higher inflation, ranging from 9.1% to 10%, and 12% believe inflation will exceed 12% by the end of 2024.
Geopolitical tensions and declining oil export revenues were identified as the most significant risks to Kazakhstan’s economy. Other concerns highlighted included the weakening of the tenge and the potential impact of international sanctions.
When asked about priority measures to stimulate growth, 50% of experts pointed to improving fiscal discipline as the most pressing issue. A further 25% stressed the need to invest in key sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture, while 12.5% emphasized improving business conditions and reducing administrative barriers.
Government initiatives aimed at doubling GDP by 2029 received a critical assessment. Some 38% of respondents rated the current measures as ineffective, while another 25% believed they are “mostly ineffective.” The rest held a more neutral stance.
Looking ahead to 2025, 50% of the participants estimate that withdrawals from the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan will amount to 6.5 trillion tenge. A quarter of respondents anticipate a withdrawal of 5.4 trillion tenge, while the remaining 25% expect an increase to 7 trillion tenge.