At the fourth meeting of the NAC Analytica Economists' Club, a survey was conducted among key experts to gather their forecasts and expectations for Kazakhstan’s economic outlook in 2024. The survey participants included representatives from the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KISI), the Economic Research Institute, the Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC), as well as the “Talap” center for applied research.

A majority of 63% of respondents expect GDP growth in the range of4.1% to 4.5%, while the remaining 37% lean towards a more conservative estimate of 3% to 4%.

Inflation projections spanned a broader spectrum. While 38% of respondents anticipate inflation to be in the 8.1% to 9% range, 25% expect it to be between 7% and 8%. A quarter of experts forecast higher inflation, ranging from 9.1% to 10%, and 12% believe inflation will exceed 12% by the end of 2024.

Geopolitical tensions and declining oil export revenues were identified as the most significant risks to Kazakhstan’s economy. Other concerns highlighted included the weakening of the tenge and the potential impact of international sanctions.

When asked about priority measures to stimulate growth, 50% of experts pointed to improving fiscal discipline as the most pressing issue. A further 25% stressed the need to invest in key sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture, while 12.5% emphasized improving business conditions and reducing administrative barriers.

Government initiatives aimed at doubling GDP by 2029 received a critical assessment. Some 38% of respondents rated the current measures as ineffective, while another 25% believed they are “mostly ineffective.” The rest held a more neutral stance.

Looking ahead to 2025, 50% of the participants estimate that withdrawals from the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan will amount to 6.5 trillion tenge. A quarter of respondents anticipate a withdrawal of 5.4 trillion tenge, while the remaining 25% expect an increase to 7 trillion tenge.

Astana, Kazakhstan – September 24, 2024

Kazakhstan's key economic policy challenges took center stage during the fourth meeting of the NAC Analytica Economists' Club. The event brought together top-tier experts from the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KISI), the Economic Research Institute, the Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC), as well as the “Talap” center for applied research to exchange insights.

The meeting kicked off with a detailed overview of the economic landscape in 2024. Experts pinpointed both the strengths and weaknesses shaping the country's economy, highlighting emerging trends that could steer the nation’s future growth.

A focal point of the discussion was inflation, with analysts flagging the role of fiscal stimulus, imported inflation from Russia, and rising costs in paid services, particularly utilities, as major drivers of inflationary pressure. Participants offered their inflation forecasts for the year, stressing the urgent need for stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to temper inflation.

Another key topic was the pursuit of sustainable GDP growth. The panel emphasized that reducing the government’s role in the economy and accelerating institutional reforms are critical to ensuring long-term stability.

As the session drew to a close, the conversation turned to looming budget risks. Attendees assessed Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy and proposed a range of measures aimed at shrinking the budget deficit and improving the efficiency of public spending.

The meeting concluded with a set of recommendations that will be refined and incorporated into future discussions on public administration and economic policy, setting the stage for more informed decision-making across various platforms.